Everyone wants to know why Bitcoin (BTC) rallied past $30,000 last night.
And no, it’s not because the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to loosen up on interest rates this week. I’ve seen that headline three times already.
That might be why people are buying BTC today, sure.
But zoom out to the bigger picture, and you’ll see that BTC has been steadily climbing since January. The Fed has increased rates twice since then.
Don’t make the American mistake of thinking our micro-level politics have a stronger impact on a macro-level issue. That’s called cognitive bias, and we study it weekly during Digital Heavyweights.
Speculation of what the Fed could do in the future does not explain why BTC reached its 10-month high last night. For that answer, we can look to the past.
Remember that BTC cost more than $60K only 16 months ago, and that had nothing to do with the Fed.
There’s a pattern hidden in BTC’s price chart that gives us a hint of when to expect BTC’s next peak. And America’s #1 Pattern Trader Tom Gentile tells me we’re still one year away from BTC’s next peak.
Music to my ears. It means there’s still money to be made
I asked Tom when we can expect BTC’s next all-time high, this is what he told me…
A Message from Tom Gentile
One of the most important things driving the price of BTC over the long term is its halving cycle. As a refresher, about every four years the reward for mining BTC is cut by half, which reduces the supply of new coins and theoretically increases prices if demand remains steady.
Without fail, BTC has rallied sharply after every halving, gaining thousands of percentage points each time.
It’s been a great bet to buy BTC after each halving, and I’ve made some great trades off of this info too. But looking deeper into this cycle uncovers another interesting tidbit…
The coin tends to bottom about a year before its next halving, with the last three bottoms happening 12, 11, and 17 months before its respective halving.
Bitcoin’s next halving is scheduled for April 2024. That means BTC bottomed anywhere in the six months spanning from November 2022 and April 2023, approximately somewhere in the orange circles I’ve highlighted below…
My analysis checks out in reality, too. It’s safe to say that BTC hit bottom around $16,000 in December.
And if my analysis is correct, we’re at the mouth of the next bull run. And we have about a year left until BTC’s next all-time high after the April 2024 halving.
So, Nick’s right-you’ve still got time to get in on these gains.
If the historical trend continues, BTC still has at least 2X to climb-and then some.
Until next time,
America’s #1 Pattern Trader