I’m still not buying Bitcoin (BTC) until after we see how the upcoming Mt. Gox settlement impacts its price.

In case you’re new here: Mt. Gox is the now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange that once handled 70% of all Bitcoin transactions worldwide before it was hacked and liquidated in 2014.

Approximately 750,000 BTC were lost, and only 200K were ever recovered from a pre-2011 wallet the exchange “found” just a few days after the breach.

Soon, those missing BTC will finally be redistributed to Mt. Gox creditors sometime in the next few months, almost a decade after the money disappeared.

I even heard a rumor that creditors would receive a surprise payment on March 10 – that’s this Friday.

But unless you’re one of the Mt. Gox creditors that will become an instant millionaire when that 10-year-old BTC hits your wallet, it doesn’t matter so much when these tokens drop, rather what happens after.

Those creditors have been paper-rich for years now. The BTC they bought for less than $300 per coin in 2014 is now worth more than $22,000…that’s at least a 7,000% ROI. If I were one of those creditors, I’d cash out my money and run.

That’s what I’m expecting to happen after the first settlement BTC is paid, and you don’t need a crystal ball to predict what’ll happen next…

If demand for BTC doesn’t change (which it hasn’t for the last six months), and the supply increases, the price goes…?

Down. Econ 101, baby – it goes a long way in the digital asset space.

Mt. Gox has already delayed token distribution once, and I’m glad they did – if those additional BTC were released in to the market as planned last November when BTC was under $20,000, its price would’ve plummeted to $13,000, easily.

Today, BTC is hovering around the $22,000 mark – a slight improvement, but not anything drastic. I still don’t think this market can handle even 1,000 additional BTC without seeing a negative price effect.

The good news is that two of the biggest Mt. Gox creditors have already agreed not to sell their BTC after receiving their payout (a smart move considering BTC still has another 2X to climb in the next bull cycle).

But I’m still not taking on the additional risk of buying more BTC now. When you know there’s a negative price catalyst coming, don’t buy more before it happens.

Wait until the fall out, and feast on the remains.

Learn more about Mt. Gox here.

And remember, if you want to stay caught up on the latest news, market updates, and profit plays in the digital asset space – tune in to American Institute for Crypto Investors LIVE every Tuesday and Thursday at 11:30 a.m. (ET) for my twice-weekly rundown.

Until then…

Stay liquid,

Nick Black


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