“Bitcoin rally…” “Ethereum rally…” “Bitcoin prices are soaring…” “Bitcoin rises…”
Those are the exact words you’ll find if you google “crypto rally” right now – headlines from CNBC, Barron’s, CoinDesk, Bloomberg, what have you.
And, you know, on the surface it’s certainly true. Bitcoin (BTC) is up around 17% for the past month, and Ether is up more than 42%. I mean, in the dictionary under “rally,” that’s what you get.
But, I’ve been around the block a few times. Not only that, but I’ve got 100% of my capital in crypto. So, I have to feel a little differently about this than the herd and its mainstream media cheerleaders.
And I think you should, too.
Here’s what’s up, and what to do about it…
What’s Really Happening Now in Crypto
Anyone who’s bought and sold stocks knows a “relief rally,” and if you’ve done it long enough, you recognize a bear market rally, too.
To be blunt, that’s what we’re seeing now. What we’re getting here is a break from a long, deep sell-off.
Nine months ago, Bitcoin was closing in on $70,000, so, while it’s nice to get back to $23,000, and it’d be great to see $25,000, what we’re really getting here is the market breathing a big sigh of relief that Bitcoin didn’t break down to $10,000 – that was a real possibility a few weeks ago.
We’ve also had June jobs data that didn’t suck, and a simultaneous relief rally in stocks, so it makes sense we’re getting one in crypto right now. (I know, crypto orthodoxy says coins don’t correlate with stocks, but you calls ’em like you sees ’em.)
But there are a couple of things out there that could stop the relief rally before it has a chance to become an actual trend.
I’m talking about Gas (GAS) a hyped-up new “ecosystem” (watch out for that word). 14 million GAS tokens are set to hit the market, as part of the “China-focused” NEO blockchain that “wants to become the backbone of the global digital economy.”
It sounds pretty gross.
They’re calling it “Chinese Ethereum,” and the project is crap – the whitepaper is Buzzword Bingo. The homepage ticks all the requisite hype boxes: Digital assets? Check. Smart contracts? Check. Ecosystem? Check. Disrupt? Check. “Sister coin?” Check. Bingo.
If this were 2021, I think people would fall for this hook, line, and sinker, just like they did Celsius and 3AC.
If there’s a silver lining to the contagion, it’s that people might be savvier now – they sure ought to be – but Gas’ impact hasn’t been priced into the market yet.
So, no, I don’t really trust this particular rally, and I, broadly speaking, I don’t think anybody else should, either. It’s great if you write headlines for a living, but you’ve got to see it differently if you own crypto for a living.
That’s not to say some coins won’t continue to climb higher – particularly over the long-term. I don’t think Bitcoin’s “there” yet, and I don’t think we’re headed toward crypto spring right now.
The smart thing to do here is carefully harvest profits where you have them. If you’re like me, and you have a carefully balanced portfolio, consider skimming some cream from your biggest performers right now, and put it towards some quality under-performers – coins you really believe in that are lagging a bit behind the curve.